8 Tech Predictions for 2009 (1)

by Tim Bajarin
The current economic crisis makes forecasting much more difficult this year than in the past, yet December still seems like a good time to ponder the year ahead. To that end, I've compiled a list of seven tech predictions—things I believe will happen over the next 12 months, plus one perhaps outrageous bonus prediction that could happen…if the stars align just right next year.
1. Windows 7 will bring tech out of the doldrums. Sales of PCs and other tech will be down in the first half of 2009, but when Microsoft delivers Windows 7 by Q3 (as many expect), it could catalyze the tech economy. This new OS will drive businesses and consumers to new PC and notebook purchases by Q4. Think it's just wishful thinking? In the past when Microsoft delivered a new operating system for mass consumption, sales of PCs and notebooks accelerated dramatically for a period of 24 months. This didn't happen with Vista, but it has happened with many other major releases. Let's hope that history repeats itself.
I'm not alone in this prediction, either; I've talked to several IT directors who confirm this view. Many enterprises balked at buying Vista but are hearing enough good things about Windows 7 to be open to upgrading once it comes out. The big issue will be 2009 budgets, and at the moment, a lot of IT budgets are frozen. Still, IT managers have told me that many of their machines are so old that they have to do some hardware upgrades just to keep their shops competitive.
2. The tech industry will be the first to recover. While the real estate and auto markets will be very slow to come back, the tech industry will recover fastest and be moving forward again by Q3. As stated above, Windows 7 could jump-start things, but technology has become so important to our business and personal lives that the employed will buy new notebooks, music players, and TVs if the economy merely stabilizes sometime in 2009.
3. The unemployed will start small businesses to survive—and will need PCs to make a living. We saw this happen during the last recession and also when some of the big companies downsized. Many of those laid off are professionals who could start specialty consulting services as well as new businesses of various types just to survive. PC technology and communications will most likely be at the heart of their new ventures.
4. Netbook sales will double in 2009. People want cheaper laptops, ones that provide more mobility. Manufacturers should sell about 18 million netbooks this year, and at least another 36 to 38 million worldwide in 2009. These products have driven down the average selling prices of traditional laptops; now full-powered laptops are in the same price range as netbooks. Consequently, users will be faced with a difficult choice when purchasing a notebook in 2009: extreme mobility versus full-powered functionality. But the biggest impact from netbooks will be at the vendor level. These lower-priced models have small margins, and that will impact their profitability in 2009. The drop in revenues will force the major vendors to move faster to create their own ecosystems—hardware, software, and services tied to these netbooks through some type of cloud solution—and use this as a way to develop new revenue streams.

source :
http://www.pcmag.com