by Tim Bajarin
5. Smartphones will gain market share. By 2012, 75 percent of all phones sold in the US will be smartphones. Earlier this year sales of cell phones and smartphones grew, but under the current economic climate, sales for the latter part of the year seem stalled. Still, about 1.2 billion cell phones will have been sold worldwide in 2008. They're simply indispensible tools, and in the next 12 months, smartphones such as Apple's iPhone and the RIM BlackBerry will gain a stronger foothold in the U.S. and Europe. By 2015, smartphones will represent as much as 65 percent of all cell phones sold globally.
6. Android will expand its reach. When we talk about Android today, we mostly discuss its role inside a "Google phone" such as the T-Mobile G1. Indeed, in the near term, Android's focus will continue to be smartphones. But by next holiday season we should see it in set-top boxes, digital televisions, and Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs)—and perhaps even desktop terminals. In fact, Android could emerge as the biggest threat to Linux's desire to make the mainstream, and within the next three years Android could become a major OS in its own right.
For this to happen, Google will need to take a Microsoft-like approach to shepherding Android; the SDK needs to be much more solid, and the company needs to drive open-source components in a way that gives Android a consistent UI across all types of devices. And the Mountain View crew needs to take a page from Apple's playbook and create an easy way for people to get Android apps that are tested, approved, and trusted. If that happens, Android could become a most interesting broad-market OS—and could perhaps take on Windows in the future.
7. Apple market share in PCs and smartphones will grow. Even in a downturn, Apple will grow its market share by at least 2 points in 2009. The ease-of-use message and the complete ecosystem are attracting more new customers to Apple stores, and the company will gain new Mac users at the expense of Windows vendors. If Apple delivers a low-cost laptop sometime in 2009, as some rumors have it, its market share could climb even more than 2 points in the coming year. Also, Apple will continue to innovate around the iPhone and even add some models at lower prices to attract new customers worldwide. Apple knows that it is gaining ground on competitors and will use the competition's struggles in the coming year to its own advantage.
And for my outrageous prediction:
8. Microsoft makes a play to purchase RIM. If the Apple iPhone makes any serious inroads into the enterprise, Microsoft will make a bid for RIM and use it to enhance and solidify the company's enterprise smartphone position. Sure, new versions of Windows Mobile will be much richer in the future, but BlackBerry customers are almost as fanatical as Apple users. Microsoft would love to displace BlackBerry phones with Windows Mobile smartphones, and how better to get RIM's customers than by buying the company? Microsoft could then blend RIM into a service, which is where the long-term money will be someday
6. Android will expand its reach. When we talk about Android today, we mostly discuss its role inside a "Google phone" such as the T-Mobile G1. Indeed, in the near term, Android's focus will continue to be smartphones. But by next holiday season we should see it in set-top boxes, digital televisions, and Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs)—and perhaps even desktop terminals. In fact, Android could emerge as the biggest threat to Linux's desire to make the mainstream, and within the next three years Android could become a major OS in its own right.
For this to happen, Google will need to take a Microsoft-like approach to shepherding Android; the SDK needs to be much more solid, and the company needs to drive open-source components in a way that gives Android a consistent UI across all types of devices. And the Mountain View crew needs to take a page from Apple's playbook and create an easy way for people to get Android apps that are tested, approved, and trusted. If that happens, Android could become a most interesting broad-market OS—and could perhaps take on Windows in the future.
7. Apple market share in PCs and smartphones will grow. Even in a downturn, Apple will grow its market share by at least 2 points in 2009. The ease-of-use message and the complete ecosystem are attracting more new customers to Apple stores, and the company will gain new Mac users at the expense of Windows vendors. If Apple delivers a low-cost laptop sometime in 2009, as some rumors have it, its market share could climb even more than 2 points in the coming year. Also, Apple will continue to innovate around the iPhone and even add some models at lower prices to attract new customers worldwide. Apple knows that it is gaining ground on competitors and will use the competition's struggles in the coming year to its own advantage.
And for my outrageous prediction:
8. Microsoft makes a play to purchase RIM. If the Apple iPhone makes any serious inroads into the enterprise, Microsoft will make a bid for RIM and use it to enhance and solidify the company's enterprise smartphone position. Sure, new versions of Windows Mobile will be much richer in the future, but BlackBerry customers are almost as fanatical as Apple users. Microsoft would love to displace BlackBerry phones with Windows Mobile smartphones, and how better to get RIM's customers than by buying the company? Microsoft could then blend RIM into a service, which is where the long-term money will be someday
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